9.09.2004

Zogby Says Polls Have It All Wrong

Polling gurus over at Zogby International have come out with their latest poll which actually has John Kerry leading by a small margin. This comes only days after all the major pollsters had come out saying Bush had gained as many as 11 points from the RNC and that the election was starting to run away from Kerry. Zogby had some pointed words for all the other polling services:

...But I will remind readers that my polling has come closest to the final results in both 1996 and 2000.

None of this takes away from the President's achievement. He got out of his party's convention everything he needed to launch his campaign in earnest in the closing two months. But my poll still reveals lurking shadows for him. He still has a net negative job performance rating, a negative re-elect (i.e. more voters think it is time for someone new than feel he deserves re-election) and a net negative wrong direction for the country.

The poll also suggests that Mr. Kerry is behind and has a lot of work to do to refocus the campaign on the issues that must work for him: the economy, health care, and the execution of the war in Iraq. We also see now that at least in the short run, the advertising campaign against the Senator about his military service in Vietnam has raised questions about his integrity and has caused his personal unfavorable numbers to jump.

But with all that said, it simply is not an 11 point race. It just isn't.


The results of his latest poll? Find out here:

A new Zogby-America poll, conducted August 12-14, says likely voters favor Sen. John F. Kerry over President George W. Bush 47-43 percent - when all the candidates, including Ralph Nader as well as the Libertarian, Constitution and Green Party presidential candidates, are factored into the race.

The latest Zogby-America poll said the Kerry-Edwards ticket has gained two points since the Democratic National Convention, and it now leads the Bush-Cheney ticket by seven points -- 50-43 percent, with 6 percent of voters undecided.


Of course, polling results don't matter in this election. But Mr. Zogby did point out that there's a lot of time left until Nov. 2 and we still have debates to consider. I had read that Bush was somehow trying to get the number of debates cut down to 2 because they felt that St. Louis might be "partisan." Of course, it might also be because they realize their man is likely to lose points with every debate he loses(which should be all of them) and they're hoping to limit the damage.
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