10.12.2004
Pair of Polls
Just a reminder to anyone who assumes that the momentum has swung Kerry's way: this is not over. Yahoo reports that in their latest poll, in conjuction with Zogby, the race has become a statistical dead heat:
President Bush bounced back into a tie with Democratic challenger John Kerry one day before their final debate, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Tuesday.
Bush gained three points on the Massachusetts senator to move into a 45-45 percent dead heat in the latest three-day tracking poll of the White House campaign.
The focus of the tight race now turns to Wednesday's pivotal final debate in Tempe, Arizona, with both candidates hoping to take advantage of their last chance to court a national television audience of likely voters.
"A close race got closer," pollster John Zogby said. "I am not expecting anyone to pull away in this one -- at least not yet."
Seven percent of likely voters are still undecided three weeks before the Nov. 2 election. Only 35 percent of undecided voters give Bush a positive job rating, and 50 percent give him a negative rating.
Bush holds solid leads among married voters, military families, investors and those living in states he won in the 2000 race against Democrat Al Gore. Kerry holds leads over Bush among single voters, moderate voters, union voters and those living in states won by Gore.
Newly registered voters lean toward Kerry by 49-42 percent, while those who have already voted give a slight edge to Bush by 48-43 percent.
The poll of 1,223 likely voters was taken Saturday through Monday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Nov. 1 -- the day before the election.
Indeed, I've had a number of people tell me that Kerry is starting to run away with things and that perhaps what you see out in the "real world" isn't how the election is really going. But I'm ever-cautious and feel that this type of polling, along with all the voter disenfranchisement that's likely to occur could cause the election to go either way.
However, there is good news as well. Seems most people don't approve of the job Mr. Bush has done:
Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign, says growing concern about terrorism, Iraq and the economy hasn't boosted voters' trust in Kerry to handle those issues. Bush retains an advantage of 17 points on handling terrorism, 7 points on Iraq.
But Bush's approval rating — the most reliable measure of a president's re-election prospects — has dropped to 47%, the lowest since July. Anything below 50% is considered a red flag for incumbents.
Also in the poll:
• Nearly two of three voters call the economy only fair or poor. A plurality says it's getting worse. In September, a plurality said it was getting better.
• Attitudes about Iraq are as negative as they were in May, the previous low point — a time soon after photos of abused Iraqi prisoners had been released and an American contractor beheaded. A 54% majority now says the war wasn't worth it.
• Confidence that the United States is winning the war on terror also slipped a bit, though a majority still express satisfaction with how it's going.
• Kerry is preferred on almost every domestic issue over Bush, with an edge of 29 points on the environment, 19 points on health care, 13 points on the federal budget deficit. He holds an advantage on handling Medicare, Social Security, education and the economy.
The exception: taxes. One in four voters predict Bush will raise federal income taxes if he wins the election. Twice as many say that of Kerry.
The fact that people might be concerned about taxes just proves that David Cross was right. People don't care what the President does, as long as they get their $200 tax cut.
President Bush bounced back into a tie with Democratic challenger John Kerry one day before their final debate, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Tuesday.
Bush gained three points on the Massachusetts senator to move into a 45-45 percent dead heat in the latest three-day tracking poll of the White House campaign.
The focus of the tight race now turns to Wednesday's pivotal final debate in Tempe, Arizona, with both candidates hoping to take advantage of their last chance to court a national television audience of likely voters.
"A close race got closer," pollster John Zogby said. "I am not expecting anyone to pull away in this one -- at least not yet."
Seven percent of likely voters are still undecided three weeks before the Nov. 2 election. Only 35 percent of undecided voters give Bush a positive job rating, and 50 percent give him a negative rating.
Bush holds solid leads among married voters, military families, investors and those living in states he won in the 2000 race against Democrat Al Gore. Kerry holds leads over Bush among single voters, moderate voters, union voters and those living in states won by Gore.
Newly registered voters lean toward Kerry by 49-42 percent, while those who have already voted give a slight edge to Bush by 48-43 percent.
The poll of 1,223 likely voters was taken Saturday through Monday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Nov. 1 -- the day before the election.
Indeed, I've had a number of people tell me that Kerry is starting to run away with things and that perhaps what you see out in the "real world" isn't how the election is really going. But I'm ever-cautious and feel that this type of polling, along with all the voter disenfranchisement that's likely to occur could cause the election to go either way.
However, there is good news as well. Seems most people don't approve of the job Mr. Bush has done:
Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign, says growing concern about terrorism, Iraq and the economy hasn't boosted voters' trust in Kerry to handle those issues. Bush retains an advantage of 17 points on handling terrorism, 7 points on Iraq.
But Bush's approval rating — the most reliable measure of a president's re-election prospects — has dropped to 47%, the lowest since July. Anything below 50% is considered a red flag for incumbents.
Also in the poll:
• Nearly two of three voters call the economy only fair or poor. A plurality says it's getting worse. In September, a plurality said it was getting better.
• Attitudes about Iraq are as negative as they were in May, the previous low point — a time soon after photos of abused Iraqi prisoners had been released and an American contractor beheaded. A 54% majority now says the war wasn't worth it.
• Confidence that the United States is winning the war on terror also slipped a bit, though a majority still express satisfaction with how it's going.
• Kerry is preferred on almost every domestic issue over Bush, with an edge of 29 points on the environment, 19 points on health care, 13 points on the federal budget deficit. He holds an advantage on handling Medicare, Social Security, education and the economy.
The exception: taxes. One in four voters predict Bush will raise federal income taxes if he wins the election. Twice as many say that of Kerry.
The fact that people might be concerned about taxes just proves that David Cross was right. People don't care what the President does, as long as they get their $200 tax cut.
